Treasury desk

The policy rate, overnight money, how each auction went

The price of money

Where the Fed has set it, where it actually trades overnight, and what ten years of it costs.

Oct 2, 2026

3.75 to 4.00%

Fed target range · fed funds traded at 3.88%

3.88%

SOFR · secured overnight, $3.0tn traded

5.31%

10-year yield · 47 bp above the 2-year

The Fed's target range is 3.75 to 4.00%; fed funds traded at 3.88% and SOFR at 3.88% on Oct 2, 2026. The 10-year yields 5.31%, 47 bp above the 2-year at 4.84%, so the curve is upward-sloping as of Oct 5, 2026.

Overnight money, one yearSOFR averaged 3.784% over 30 days and 3.682% over 180; Treasury repo cleared at 3.86%.

Fed funds, effectiveSOFRTop of the target range3.50% to 4.31%

Oct 2025Oct 2026

The whole curve, real yields and the recession odds live on Economy & rates.

How the auctions went

Every note and bond sale of the past year, judged against the same term's own record: bids per dollar sold, and how much the dealers had to swallow.

as of Oct 5, 2026

The 7-year note sold at 5.08% on Sep 24, 2026, 2.42 times covered against 2.48 on average, dealers taking 13%: weak demand. Across the latest sale of each term, demand was strong for the 3-year, the 10-year, the 30-year and weak for the 5-year, the 7-year, the 20-year.

2-year noteSep 22, 2026 · 2.63×: 4.79%in line
3-year noteSep 8, 2026 · 2.72×: 4.47%strong
5-year noteSep 23, 2026 · 2.21×: 5.03%weak
7-year noteSep 24, 2026 · 2.42×: 5.08%weak
10-year noteSep 9, 2026 · 2.71× · reopening: 4.83%strong
20-year bondSep 15, 2026 · 2.57× · reopening: 5.42%weak
30-year bondSep 10, 2026 · 2.61× · reopening: 5.31%strong

Treasury note and bond auctions, newest first
Date	Sale	Size	High yield	Over median	Bid to cover	Indirect	Dealers	Demand
Sep 24, 2026	7-year note	$44bn	5.085%	6.6 bp	2.42×vs 2.48	57%	13%vs 12%	weak
Sep 23, 2026	5-year note	$70bn	5.033%	8.3 bp	2.21×vs 2.34	54%	16%vs 12%	weak
Sep 23, 2026	2-year floating-rate notereopening	$28bn	4.0 bp	3.0 bp	2.63×vs 3.25	59%	41%vs 35%	weak
Sep 22, 2026	2-year note	$69bn	4.787%	4.9 bp	2.63×vs 2.61	58%	13%vs 12%	in line
Sep 17, 2026	10-year TIPSreopening	$19bn	2.653%	7.6 bp	2.24×vs 2.38	59%	12%vs 12%	weak
Sep 15, 2026	20-year bondreopening	$13bn	5.420%	6.0 bp	2.57×vs 2.64	52%	17%vs 11%	weak
Sep 10, 2026	30-year bondreopening	$22bn	5.308%	5.8 bp	2.61×vs 2.40	79%	2%vs 11%	strong
Sep 9, 2026	10-year notereopening	$39bn	4.834%	6.5 bp	2.71×vs 2.50	79%	4%vs 9%	strong
Sep 8, 2026	3-year note	$58bn	4.474%	4.4 bp	2.72×vs 2.66	62%	11%vs 12%	strong
Aug 27, 2026	7-year note	$44bn	4.512%	5.2 bp	2.50×vs 2.48	61%	12%vs 12%	in line
Aug 26, 2026	5-year note	$70bn	4.393%	5.3 bp	2.37×vs 2.34	62%	10%vs 12%	strong
Aug 26, 2026	2-year floating-rate notereopening	$28bn	5.5 bp	1.0 bp	3.14×vs 3.26	67%	33%vs 35%	in line
Aug 25, 2026	2-year note	$69bn	4.204%	4.7 bp	2.60×vs 2.61	66%	11%vs 12%	in line
Aug 20, 2026	30-year TIPSreopening	$8.0bn	2.973%	4.8 bp	2.82×vs 2.75	84%	2%vs 2%	n/a
Aug 19, 2026	20-year bond	$16bn	5.204%	5.7 bp	2.53×vs 2.65	63%	12%vs 11%	weak
Aug 13, 2026	30-year bond	$25bn	5.216%	6.6 bp	2.39×vs 2.40	67%	12%vs 11%	in line
Aug 12, 2026	10-year note	$42bn	4.683%	5.3 bp	2.53×vs 2.50	77%	9%vs 10%	in line
Aug 11, 2026	3-year note	$58bn	4.291%	4.8 bp	2.71×vs 2.65	64%	12%vs 12%	in line
Jul 29, 2026	2-year floating-rate note	$30bn	5.0 bp	1.6 bp	3.37×vs 3.25	63%	37%vs 35%	in line
Jul 28, 2026	7-year note	$44bn	4.473%	6.8 bp	2.49×vs 2.47	70%	13%vs 12%	in line
Jul 27, 2026	2-year note	$69bn	4.315%	4.5 bp	2.66×vs 2.61	57%	9%vs 12%	strong
Jul 27, 2026	5-year note	$70bn	4.408%	6.5 bp	2.28×vs 2.34	59%	14%vs 12%	weak
Jul 23, 2026	10-year TIPS	$21bn	2.438%	6.8 bp	2.30×vs 2.40	65%	10%vs 13%	in line
Jul 22, 2026	20-year bondreopening	$13bn	5.163%	4.3 bp	2.64×vs 2.65	69%	15%vs 10%	weak

Bid to cover, one yearDollars bid for every dollar sold, at each auction of the term. Higher is more demand.

2-year10-year30-year2.29× to 2.75×

Sep 2025Sep 2026

The bills

The short end, sold every week: the latest sale of each term and what the government paid for the money.

4-week billOct 1, 2026 · $100bn · 2.83×: 3.956%
6-week billSep 29, 2026 · $85bn · 2.82×: 4.044%
8-week billOct 1, 2026 · $95bn · 2.70×: 4.071%
13-week billOct 5, 2026 · $95bn · 2.51×: 4.149%
17-week billSep 30, 2026 · $75bn · 2.89×: 4.230%
26-week billOct 5, 2026 · $82bn · 2.79×: 4.314%
52-week billSep 29, 2026 · $54bn · 3.07×: 4.616%

The rate shown is the investment rate, the yield a buyer earns holding the bill to maturity.

What is coming

The sales the Treasury has announced. Sizes appear when the offering is announced, usually the Thursday before.

3-year noteOct 6, 2026: $58bn
6-week bill, reopeningOct 6, 2026: $95bn
10-year note, reopeningOct 7, 2026: $39bn
17-week billOct 7, 2026: n/a
30-year bond, reopeningOct 8, 2026: $22bn
8-week bill, reopeningOct 8, 2026: n/a
4-week bill, reopeningOct 8, 2026: n/a
26-week bill, reopeningOct 13, 2026: n/a
13-week bill, reopeningOct 13, 2026: n/a
6-week bill, reopeningOct 13, 2026: n/a

The rest of the week, with the Fed, GDP and the results filings, is on What is coming.

Auction results and announcements from TreasuryDirect; overnight rates and the target range from the New York Fed; the 2-year and 10-year from the Treasury’s daily par curve. The demand verdict compares an auction’s bid-to-cover and primary-dealer share with the same term’s auctions over the prior year: at least half a standard deviation better on the two together is strong, half a standard deviation worse is weak, and a term with fewer than four prior sales is not judged. “Over median” is the high yield less the median accepted yield, the public cousin of the tail traders quote against the when-issued price. Indirect bidders are mostly foreign official accounts and funds bidding through a dealer; the dealers themselves must absorb what nobody else took.