ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc.
Is it safe?
Nothing alarming, nothing pristine: comfortable debt (A) and big price swings.
Investment-grade balance sheet. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Large price swings, high volatility. Worst drawdown -73% · now 18% below its 52-week high.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can ASTL take a bad year?
Algoma Steel Group Inc. carries $408M of net debt as at FY2026, with no operating profit to service it.
Net debt · as at FY2026 · debt less the cash on hand
- Cash runway
- 0.2 years
Cash runway · burning $99M a quarter at the current rate
- Annualised volatility
- 65%
Annualised volatility · S&P 500 16% · about 4 times the market's own swing
- Worst drawdown on file
- −73%
Worst drawdown on file · −18% today
Details›
- Total debtFY2026
- $485M
- Cash and short-term investments
- $78M
- Net debt
- $408M
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- −$1.33B
- Debt / equity
- 0.99×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 65%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −73%
- Below its 52-week high
- 18%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
The balance sheet
What it owes against what it owns, and how close that comes to trouble.
How far can it fall?
How much the price moves, how deep and how long its falls have run, and what each unit of risk has paid.
Steel
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