CMCCommercial Metals Company
Is it safe?
Solid, nothing alarming. Some accounting flags, quality moderate, insiders net buying.
Some accounting flags, worth a closer look Beneish M-score, a forensic model that detects earnings-manipulation patterns (receivables outrunning sales, margins slipping, accrual-heavy profit).
Mixed fundamental signals Piotroski F-score, nine pass/fail tests of year-over-year financial health across profitability, balance sheet and efficiency. 7 to 9 is strong, 0 to 3 weak.
Insiders were net buyers (+$100K, 90 days to Oct 22, 2026). SEC Form 4 filings: officers and directors must report their own trades within two business days.
Investment-grade balance sheet. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Moderate price swings, typical volatility. Worst drawdown -54% · now 24% below its 52-week high.
Unless marked, from SEC EDGAR, as of Aug 31, 2026.
Against the whole market›
Percentile against every name Ryufin tracks. Higher is better; the tick marks the middle of the market. Context, not one of the checks above.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can CMC take a bad year?
Commercial Metals Company carries $2.60B of net debt at 2.35× EBITDA: a load its earnings can carry.
Net debt · as at Q4 2026 · under two and a half years of EBITDA, comfortable
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.35×
Net debt / EBITDA · 0.78× a year ago · the load is going up
- Interest cover
- 4.96×
Interest cover · operating profit covers the interest bill, with room to spare
- Annualised volatility
- 38%
Annualised volatility · S&P 500 16% · roughly twice as jumpy as the market
Details›
- Total debtQ4 2026
- $3.38B
- Cash and short-term investments
- $779M
- Net debt
- $2.60B
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- $1.11B
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- $711M
- Debt / equity
- 0.72×
- Total debt / EBITDA
- 3.05×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 38%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −54%
- Below its 52-week high
- 24%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
The balance sheet
What it owes against what it owns, and how close that comes to trouble.
How far can it fall?
How much the price moves, how deep and how long its falls have run, and what each unit of risk has paid.