ESTCElastic N.V.
Is it safe?
Caution warranted: heavy debt (BB) and big price swings.
Insiders were net sellers (-$422.9M, 90 days to Oct 22, 2026), selling is often routine.
Net cash, but unprofitable, speculative. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Large price swings, high volatility. Worst drawdown -77% · now at/near its 52-week high.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can ESTC take a bad year?
Elastic N.V. holds $890M more cash than debt, so a bad year is a question about profits, not about lenders.
Net cash · as at Q1 2027 · cash and short-term investments less total debt
- Net debt / EBITDA
- net cash
Net debt / EBITDA · no net borrowings to measure against earnings
- Interest cover
- none
Interest cover · no operating profit to pay the interest bill from
- Annualised volatility
- 56%
Annualised volatility · S&P 500 16% · about 3 times the market's own swing
Details›
- Total debtQ1 2027
- $571M
- Cash and short-term investments
- $1.46B
- Net cash
- $890M
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- −$45M
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- −$48M
- Debt / equity
- 0.44×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 56%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −77%
- Below its 52-week high
- 0.00%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
The balance sheet
What it owes against what it owns, and how close that comes to trouble.
How far can it fall?
How much the price moves, how deep and how long its falls have run, and what each unit of risk has paid.