IBMIBM
Is it safe?
Solid, nothing alarming: clean books, but heavy debt (BB).
Reported earnings show no manipulation flags Beneish M-score, a forensic model that detects earnings-manipulation patterns (receivables outrunning sales, margins slipping, accrual-heavy profit).
Mixed fundamental signals Piotroski F-score, nine pass/fail tests of year-over-year financial health across profitability, balance sheet and efficiency. 7 to 9 is strong, 0 to 3 weak.
Insiders were net sellers (-$5.8M, 90 days to Oct 22, 2026), selling is often routine.
Moderately leveraged. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Moderate price swings, typical volatility. Worst drawdown -41% · now 23% below its 52-week high.
Unless marked, from SEC EDGAR, as of Dec 31, 2025.
Against the whole market›
Percentile against every name Ryufin tracks. Higher is better; the tick marks the middle of the market. Context, not one of the checks above.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can IBM take a bad year?
IBM carries $61.6B of net debt as at Q3 2026.
Net debt · as at Q3 2026 · debt less the cash on hand
- Debt / equity
- 1.99×
Debt / equity
- Annualised volatility
- 40%
Annualised volatility · S&P 500 16% · roughly twice as jumpy as the market
- Worst drawdown on file
- −41%
Worst drawdown on file · −23% today
Details›
- Total debtQ3 2026
- $70.8B
- Cash and short-term investments
- $9.23B
- Net debt
- $61.6B
- Debt / equity
- 1.99×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 40%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −41%
- Below its 52-week high
- 23%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
The balance sheet
What it owes against what it owns, and how close that comes to trouble.
How far can it fall?
How much the price moves, how deep and how long its falls have run, and what each unit of risk has paid.
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