NVAXNovavax, Inc.
Is it safe?
Serious red flags: a balance sheet under strain, accounting red flags, and heavy debt (BB). Everything else is secondary until this clears.
Elevated financial-distress risk Altman Z-score, a bankruptcy-risk model from five balance-sheet ratios.
Several accounting flags in the manipulation-likely range Beneish M-score, a forensic model that detects earnings-manipulation patterns (receivables outrunning sales, margins slipping, accrual-heavy profit).
Mixed fundamental signals Piotroski F-score, nine pass/fail tests of year-over-year financial health across profitability, balance sheet and efficiency. 7 to 9 is strong, 0 to 3 weak.
Net cash, but unprofitable, speculative. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Large price swings, high volatility. Worst drawdown -99% · now 24% below its 52-week high.
Unless marked, from SEC EDGAR, as of Dec 31, 2025.
Against the whole market›
Percentile against every name Ryufin tracks. Higher is better; the tick marks the middle of the market. Context, not one of the checks above.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can NVAX take a bad year?
Novavax, Inc. holds $428M more cash than debt, and is burning $11M a quarter, about 17.1 years of cover.
Net cash · as at Q2 2026 · cash and short-term investments less total debt
- Net debt / EBITDA
- net cash
Net debt / EBITDA · no net borrowings to measure against earnings
- Altman Z-score
- -1.95
Altman Z-score · distress zone, below 1.8
- Cash runway
- 5+ years
Cash runway · burning $11M a quarter at the current rate
Details›
- Total debtQ2 2026
- $291M
- Cash and short-term investments
- $719M
- Net cash
- $428M
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- −$216M
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- −$234M
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 75%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −99%
- Below its 52-week high
- 24%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
The balance sheet
What it owes against what it owns, and how close that comes to trouble.
How far can it fall?
How much the price moves, how deep and how long its falls have run, and what each unit of risk has paid.