WFGWest Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.
Is it safe?
Nothing alarming, nothing pristine: heavy debt (CCC) and typical volatility.
Debt against weak or negative operating profit. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Moderate price swings, typical volatility. Worst drawdown -79% · now 9% below its 52-week high.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can WFG take a bad year?
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. carries $98M of net debt as at FY2025, with no operating profit to service it.
Net debt · as at FY2025 · debt less the cash on hand, with no positive EBITDA to service it
- Cash runway
- 0.7 years
Cash runway · burning $79M a quarter at the current rate
- Annualised volatility
- 31%
Annualised volatility · S&P 500 16% · roughly twice as jumpy as the market
- Worst drawdown on file
- −79%
Worst drawdown on file · −8.6% today
Details›
- Total debtFY2025
- $300M
- Cash and short-term investments
- $202M
- Net debt
- $98M
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- −$709M
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- −$1.19B
- Debt / equity
- 0.05×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 31%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −79%
- Below its 52-week high
- 8.6%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
The balance sheet
What it owes against what it owns, and how close that comes to trouble.
How far can it fall?
How much the price moves, how deep and how long its falls have run, and what each unit of risk has paid.