YPFYPF Sociedad Anónima
Is it safe?
Nothing alarming, nothing pristine: comfortable debt (A) and big price swings.
Investment-grade balance sheet. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Large price swings, high volatility. Worst drawdown -90% · now 12% below its 52-week high.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can YPF take a bad year?
YPF Sociedad Anónima carries $694.5B of net debt at 2.13× EBITDA: a load its earnings can carry.
Net debt · as at FY2021 · under two and a half years of EBITDA, comfortable
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.13×
Net debt / EBITDA · 5.52× a year ago · the load is coming down
- Interest cover
- 0.81×
Interest cover · operating profit does not cover the interest bill
- Annualised volatility
- 50%
Annualised volatility · S&P 500 16% · about 3 times the market's own swing
Details›
- Total debtFY2021
- $757.2B
- Cash and short-term investments
- $62.7B
- Net debt
- $694.5B
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- $325.9B
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- $58.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.90×
- Total debt / EBITDA
- 2.32×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 50%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −90%
- Below its 52-week high
- 12%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
The balance sheet
What it owes against what it owns, and how close that comes to trouble.
How far can it fall?
How much the price moves, how deep and how long its falls have run, and what each unit of risk has paid.
Oil & Gas Integrated
Ranks #10 of 11 by RyuScore