HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.
Is it safe?
Solid, nothing alarming: clean books and comfortable debt (AA), but big price swings.
Reported earnings show no manipulation flags Beneish M-score, a forensic model that detects earnings-manipulation patterns (receivables outrunning sales, margins slipping, accrual-heavy profit).
Mixed fundamental signals Piotroski F-score, nine pass/fail tests of year-over-year financial health across profitability, balance sheet and efficiency. 7 to 9 is strong, 0 to 3 weak.
Insiders were net sellers (-$11.6M, 90 days to Oct 22, 2026), selling is often routine.
Net cash and profitable. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Large price swings, high volatility. Worst drawdown -65% · now 22% below its 52-week high.
Unless marked, from SEC EDGAR, as of Dec 31, 2025.
Against the whole market›
Percentile against every name Ryufin tracks. Higher is better; the tick marks the middle of the market. Context, not one of the checks above.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can HCC take a bad year?
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. holds $168M more cash than debt, so a bad year is a question about profits, not about lenders.
Net cash · as at Q2 2026 · cash and short-term investments less total debt
- Net debt / EBITDA
- net cash
Net debt / EBITDA · no net borrowings to measure against earnings
- Interest cover
- 17.1×
Interest cover · operating profit covers the interest bill several times over
- Annualised volatility
- 51%
Annualised volatility · S&P 500 16% · about 3 times the market's own swing
Details›
- Total debtQ2 2026
- $155M
- Cash and short-term investments
- $322M
- Net cash
- $168M
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- $440M
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- $229M
- Debt / equity
- 0.07×
- Total debt / EBITDA
- 0.35×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 51%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −65%
- Below its 52-week high
- 22%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
The balance sheet
What it owes against what it owns, and how close that comes to trouble.
How far can it fall?
How much the price moves, how deep and how long its falls have run, and what each unit of risk has paid.